Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03
Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 382 km/s at 01/2111Z.
Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/2055Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -7.6 nT at 01/2047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (02 Feb, 03 Feb,
04 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 104
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 007/012-012/018-009/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/35/35

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