Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 372 km/s at
30/0002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 097
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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