Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26
Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 423 km/s at 25/1918Z. Total IMF
reached 17.7 nT at 25/1944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -4.3 nT at 25/0147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 531 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (26 Jan, 27
Jan, 28 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 101
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 009/015-013/020-007/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/40/10

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