Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 293 km/s at
24/0206Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 24/2018Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.4 nT at 23/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 241 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (25 Jan, 26
Jan, 27 Jan) due to a combination of coronal hole high speed stream
effects and possible weak effects from the CME observed on 23 Jan.

III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 103
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 006/008-009/015-013/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/35/40

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