Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 17/0305Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/1526Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14.1 nT at 17/1448Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
17/1415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), active levels on day
two (19 Jan), and minor storm levels again on day three (20 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 123
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 008/010-010/015-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/35
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/35/55

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