Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/0556Z from Region 1654 (N07W19). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance of moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16
Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 564 km/s at
14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 520 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at predominately quiet levels for day one (16 Jan) and unsettled
to active levels on day two (17 Jan) due to the arrival of the CME from
13 Jan. On day three (18 Jan), the geomagnetic field is expected to be
at unsettled levels with a chance of active periods.

III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 45/45/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 140
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 135/130/125
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 006/005-010/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/45/30

Please follow SpaceRef on Twitter and Like us on Facebook.