Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
14/0122Z from Region 1652 (N18W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
levels with moderate levels likely on days one, two, and three (15 Jan,
16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
593 km/s at 14/0352Z. Total IMF reached 8.6 nT at 13/2316Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6.8 nT at 14/0015Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for days one and two (15-16 Jan) and unsettled
levels on day three (17 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 154
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 006/005-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/35

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