Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
10/1746Z from Region 1654 (N08E47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan) with an
increasing chance for an M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at
10/0712Z. Total IMF reached 5.7 nT at 10/1422Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.1 nT at 10/1420Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan) with a chance for unsettled levels during days two and
three.

III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 174
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 175/175/175
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/15

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