Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0906Z from Region 1640 (N28W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 371 km/s at
31/2110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 118
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05

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