Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at
31/0108Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (01 Jan, 02
Jan, 03 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 114
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 006/008-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/10
Major-severe storm 15/20/05

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