Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01
Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at
30/2035Z. Total IMF reached 11.8 nT at 30/0720Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -10.2 nT at 30/1338Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be quiet on day 1 (31 Dec). Quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for active periods are expected on days 2-3 (01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 107
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-006/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/20/20

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