Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A 10 degree filament, centered near N08E20, was observed erupting
in H-alpha imagery beginning at 27/1939 UTC. STEREO-A COR2 imagery
showed an associated faint CME beginning at 27/2309 UTC with the
majority of the ejecta directed north of the ecliptic. We are
currently waiting on further imagery to determine possible
geoeffectiveness. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec,
30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 314 km/s at
28/0506Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 28/1254Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 28/1804Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 106
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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