Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/0455Z from Region 1635 (N12W32). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 336 km/s at
25/2322Z. Total IMF reached 6.6 nT at 26/1144Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/1052Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (27 Dec, 28
Dec, 29 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 110
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 005/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/05

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