Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed around 500 km/s.
Total IMF reached 5.3 nT at 19/1125Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -3.4 nT at 19/0811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 481 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 113
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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