Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1217Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (15 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days two and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at
14/1948Z. Total IMF reached 9.3 nT at 14/2004Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.7 nT at 14/1946Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (16 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Dec)
with a chance for active levels.

III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 119
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-007/008-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/20

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