Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three
(12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 328 km/s at
10/2344Z. Total IMF reached 5.9 nT at 10/2146Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.9 nT at 10/2149Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (13 Dec), and a return to quiet levels on day three (14 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 104
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05

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