Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 323 km/s at
06/2313Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 097
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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