Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0028Z from New Region 1628 (N10E65). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
04/2120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 096
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 004/005-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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