Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 462 km/s at
04/1430Z. Total IMF reached 11.7 nT at 04/0005Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -10.9 nT at 04/0447Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 096
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 004/005-004/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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