Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest flare was a C1 observed at 03/0036Z from a region that has
not yet rotated around the east limb. There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 381 km/s at
03/2032Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1959Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.5 nT at 03/2032Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 097
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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