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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2012

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, December 2, 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/2142Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec) with a
chance for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
360 km/s at 02/0343Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/0105Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/0733Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec)
with a chance for unsettled levels on 03 Dec.

III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 098
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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