Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/1030Z from Region 1620 (S13W95) as it departed the west limb. There
are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 341 km/s at
01/0403Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2038Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.1 nT at 01/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days (02 Dec, 03
Dec). The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 04
December.

III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 102
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 006/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05

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