Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/2126Z from Region 1620 (S12W57). The region continued to grow in
areal coverage and maintained a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region
1623 (N09E60) also grew significantly in areal coverage but the magnetic
complexity is difficult to determine with its proximity to the limb.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 448 km/s at
28/0119Z and has since decreased to nominal levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to remain quiet through the majority of 29 Nov. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for active periods are expected to begin late
on day one (around 29/1800Z) with the anticipated arrival of the 26 and
27 Nov CMEs. Activity is expected to return to mostly quiet levels by
the latter half of day two (30 Nov) as the effects from the CMEs
subside. Isolated unsettled periods are possible through day three (01
Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 114
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 009/011-012/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/10
Minor Storm 10/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/55/15

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