Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/2116Z from Region 1618 (N08W13). Although this region retains weak
beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it has experienced
intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remain
fairly stable. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 417 km/s at
21/2303Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin the forecast period at mostly quiet levels until the arrival of
the 20 Nov CME midday on day one (23 Nov) when conditions are expected
to rise to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods.
Conditions have a chance for reaching major storm levels early on day
two (24 Nov) with the expected arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day three
(25 Nov) conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels
due to CME combined with high speed stream effects.

III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 128
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 015/020-021/030-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 20/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 60/65/50

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