Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 Nov 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0407Z from Region 1615 (N07W34). Consolidation and moderate growth
was observed in Region 1619 (N10E03) which occasionally displayed
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov) with a
chance for isolated moderate activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at ACE reached 451 km/s at 18/1301Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2028Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz remained between +/- 4 nT during
the period. A new coronal hole was identified in the southern hemisphere
near center disk. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak of 1512 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21
Nov) with the exception of a possible unsettled period late on 19 Nov or
early on 20 Nov with the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.

III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 141
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 006/006-007/007-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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