Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 Nov 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1613 (S23E31) has developed a Delta magnetic configuration and
produced multiple M-class flares with associated CMEs. The largest solar
event of the period was a M6 event observed at 13/0204Z from Region
1613. Regions 1610 (S24W23) and 1611 (N12W00) have Beta Gamma magnetic
configurations. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. No CMEs observed during the period are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
504 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 22.8 nT at 13/0053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -19.5 nT at 12/2338Z. ACE data
indicated a shock arrival at 12/2216Z. A sudden impulse was observed at
12/2316Z (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin at active levels early on day 1 (14 Nov) as CME effects
subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days 1 and 2 (14, 15
Nov) due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream. On day 3 (16 Nov), conditions are expected to return to mostly
quiet levels. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold
on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 146
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 150/150/160
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/10
Major-severe storm 25/25/05

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