Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 Nov 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 07/1516Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/0031Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12.6 nT at 07/0039Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day 1 (08 Nov). Days two and
three (09 Nov, 10 Nov) should be at mostly quiet levels.

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 102
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 007/007-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05

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