Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 November 2012

Status Report From:
Posted: Sunday, November 4, 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New regions 1605 (N17E24) and 1606
(S16E45) were numbered today and are small, simple bipolar groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance of C-class flare activity on the first day (05
Nov) and a slight chance of C-class flare activity on the following
two days (06-07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 095
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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