Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 November 2012


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The activity for the past
24 hours consisted of a few, low-level B-class flares. New Region
1604 (N08E48) was assigned and is a small bipolar region. All other
regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (04-06 Nov) with a slight chance for a
an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The ACE
spacecraft observed a solar sector boundary crossing at 1153Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (04-06 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 093
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 006/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/10

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