Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Nov 2009

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Nov 2009

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Thursday, November 5, 2009
Source: Space Environment Center (NOAA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1030 (N25E04) was
numbered today as a Cro beta sunspot group with 5 spots. No flares
were observed during the past 24-hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07 November). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (08 November) as a
weak recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 071
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/006-005/005-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

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