Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Nov 2009

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Nov 2009

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Source: Space Environment Center (NOAA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The SOHO/LASCO imagery
observed a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) off the southwest limb
at 0501 UTC on 31 October. The CME appears to be earth directed
with a plane-of sky speed of 380 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (4 November). Unsettled conditions
are expected on day 2 (5 November) due to possible effects from the
CME observed on 31 October. Quiet levels are expected to return on
day 3 (6 November).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 072
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 005/005-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/30/10
Minor storm 01/20/01
Major-severe storm 01/05/01

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