Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 October 2019

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 10, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0636Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 518 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Oct 068 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/05/25

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