Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2019

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 24/1855Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 24/1654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1547Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Sep). III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Sep 067 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 010/012-008/008-013/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/40 Minor Storm 10/05/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/10 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/65

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