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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 October 2018

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 12/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36880 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 072
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  006/005-010/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/25

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