From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, May 14, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 14/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/1530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 429 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 071
Predicted 15 May-17 May 072/072/074
90 Day Mean 14 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 009/012-017/018-021/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/15/40
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/40/20
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