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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 May 2017

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, May 6, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 06/0149Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 06/2002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 613 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 073
Predicted   07 May-09 May 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        06 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10


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